Fit Reality

I'm pretty terrible at predicting the future. And with that in mind I'll predict these two things:

-We have already reached "peak fitness bands". I saw a lot of people wearing these last year. Now, not so much. Until they have some real, provable, life extending medical use, they are a fad that will fade into niche product. FitBit, we hardly knew ya.

-Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality. Destined to become the 3D TV of the late 2010's, both VR and AR have their uses but they are not the next mobile phone. They are more like the next...fitness band. Again, there will be niche uses but the idea that they gain any widespread usage is pretty slim.

You can laugh and point when I'm wrong.

A Month Late and a Dollar Short

The Atlantic's David Frum touches on (and mostly dismisses) the idea I discussed previously of having another Republican run as Independent. His reason for dismissing it is that the President would be "illegitimate". Let me be clear, if, in 2000, Ralph Nader would have won Florida and the House picked GWB as President, he would have had more legitimacy than he did by having the Supreme Court decide the election.

Don't get me wrong, there will be an outcry. We might even finally get rid of the ridiculous Electoral College. But if you are looking for a prediction, I'll vote for a short term burst in interest in elections and then we'll get back to our usual trickle-away apathy.

Irony

Sanders lays of 225 of his non-union campaign staffers.

You Can't Pan for Gold in a Swimming Pool

The choices are now set: Clinton as Democratic nominee, Trump as Republican nominee. If you don't things things are set then, quite frankly, you are delusional. Yet to be determined is if some other Republican will be put up with the goal of deciding the election in the House, as I mentioned in a previous post.

Now that they are out, here's my opinion on the new losers (alphabetically):

• Cruz - He's either a true hard-right, no abortion, open-carry, "states rights" guy or he's an idiot. The former is the the type that appeals most to the most die-hard, vote under any circumstance Republican. If he's that type then at least he's sticking by his ideas. If he's not then he's an idiot for thinking that doing so could win him the nomination.
• Kasich - He tries to appear to be a normal middle-of-the-road guy but aside from a couple policies, he's not. He's stayed above the fray but only because he saw what happened to those that went into the fray. The last couple weeks he seems to only be interested in eating.
• Sanders - Sanders has been a politician for a long time. He is from a very small state. He is totally disingenuous when he claims to be an outsider. He rails against politicians being beholden to special interests who give them money and yet is beholden to his donors who do not represent the majority of the country (and apparently not the majority of the Democratic Party). He thinks that the poor should be helped and that trade agreements are bad. Trade agreements are almost universally accepted by economists as a net positive for the parties involved. However, that can mean that labor in our country that is paid far more than the prevailing world wage will suffer while people in some other part of the world will benefit. Also, everyone else in our country benefits by somewhat lower prices. Sanders position is that if you don't live in this country too bad for you. If you do live in this country, it is perfectly reasonable to ask every American to pay extra to support some small segment of the population. Sanders is right that there is a problem but he offers no actual solution.

Don't take any of the above as an endorsement in any way of either Clinton or Trump. But you can take all of them, as a group, as an indictment of our current political system and how it is set up to keep both parties in power.

Do You Feel Like You're Going To Ralph?

Sanders anagrams to SS Nader and he is sinking the Democrats chances of winning anything in November.

How the Republicans Could Steal the Whole Election

Background: I am an independent voter. I don't particularly like any of the Presidential candidates and I have felt that way for every election I've been eligible to vote in.

I had months ago predicted (very tongue-in-cheek) in a text I sent someone that Trump would get screwed out of the nomination and run as an independent. With the Republican vote split, Bloomberg would also run as an independent and would then win in a 4-way race. With Trump on path to win the Republican nomination and Bloomberg announcing he would not run, that prediction now looks unlikely to say the least. But Bloomberg's reason, stuck with me. He said that even if he could manage to win here or there, the best case was nobody getting 270 delegates and the House would then likely pick a Republican. Fast forward to last week.

Marco Rubio seems to be being set up by the Republican "establishment" for a convention win. If he can win Florida, that is the likely scenario. He shifts gears to attack Trump but the polls (in Florida) show little to no benefit. Politically, he should get out before Florida but doesn't. To block a Trump nomination he should either get out before Florida (to "focus" the anti-Trump vote on Cruz or Kasich) or stay in until the end running a Gilmore-type campaign to just siphon off delegates from Trump. He did neither making it much more likely Trump will win the nomination without a convention fight.

Meanwhile, there is pundit after pundit on TV describing the rules of the nomination process. "It's not about the voters;" they say, "it's the delegates that choose." "Everyone got into the race knowing the rules and the rules are the same for everyone." The idea being, if you didn't know the rules, well, sucks to be you. This resonates with the anti-Trump crowd because the rules can save them from Trump! The idea that is being drilled into their heads is "we have to follow the rules!"

The other backburner story brewing is the possibility of the Republicans running someone as an Independent (or Libertarian). The pundits' reason for doing this is that Trump would hurt Republicans down-ballot, possibly losing them the Senate and even the House. It would be better to lose the Presidency (the pundits' reason against this idea) to keep control of the House and Senate. Oh, woe unto the Republicans, right? Nothing they do can get them control!

But what if this other candidate actually won a state or two.

Now read the 12th Amendment. (Here's part of it.)

The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.

 If this third candidate could pull off a state win somewhere (let's say it's Kasich in Ohio or Perry in Texas) then you could have nobody with an Electoral majority. The House then votes (1 vote per state) for the President. The Republicans currently control 32 states, the Democrats 16. With Trump and another Republican on the ballot, the Republicans likely keep their House majority and choose this "other" Republican as President.

The people will accept it because they have already been conditioned to "those are the rules." Additionally Clinton (or Sanders) will concede the election (just like Gore did) to preserve our fine democracy. What Trump supporters do likely depends on Trump. Without the possibility to be President I think he Ross Perot's it back to his old life. Maybe he gets a new show on TV or starts the Trump Channel (the best channel, believe me, it'll be HUGE).

Good morning, Cozumel!

I have to say, it is weird being on such a short cruise.
And compared to other cruises I've been on, this is a drinker's cruise. And people that really like to drink also tend to smoke. Pretty much the only place you can smoke on the ship is the casino so there is also a lot of gambling going on.

Thank you drinkers/gamblers for making this such an inexpensive cruise! :-)